Boom, Bust, Depression; Sober Thoughts on Agriculture

Abstract

The pessimistic short-run economic forecast which we were so rash as to commit to print at the end of last year (MR, December 1954, pages 264-267) reads rather poorly ten months later. It seemed to us that the "stability at a relatively high level" which characterized the closing months of 1954 was based on false optimism; and this, in turn, we attributed to seasonal factors and the early introduction of 1955 automobile models. We expected this false optimism to wear off in a few months and to be followed by a slow but general economic downturn.

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